Christian's ORB: one rules-based Nasdaq trade a day
The indicator marks the first 15 minutes of the US session on micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ), waits for price to break out of that range, and gives you the entry, stop and target. You decide your risk; the rules do the rest.
44%
win rate
1,306 trades, May 2019 – Sep 2026
1.17
profit factor
$1.17 won per $1 lost (1.12 with 1 pt slippage)
1.44R
average win
vs 0.98R average loss
~3
trades a week
at most one a day, flat by 3:45 pm New York
8
longest losing run
since 2019; plan for it
Recommended reward-to-risk
1.75 : 1
Every trade targets 1.75× what it risks. Keep it there: the 44% win rate only pays because winners are bigger than losers.
Why you can lose more often than you win and still come out ahead
Out of every 100 trades, on average since 2019:
44 wins × 1.44R+63.9R
56 losses × 0.98R−54.5R
Net about +9R per 100 trades (+0.09R a trade). Wins average 1.44R, not the full 1.75R, because some trades close at 3:45 pm before reaching the target. At these sizes the strategy breaks even at a 40% win rate; it has run at 44%. A few points of win rate or slippage is the whole edge.
What risking 2% a trade did
Growth of a $10,000 account risking 2% of the balance on every signal, May 2019 – Sep 2026, after commission.
Commission only
$10k → $76.1k
+31.9% a year · worst drop −32%
Plus 1 point slippage a trade
$10k → $38.2k
+20.1% a year · worst drop −44%
Year by year at 2%
YearReturnWin ratePF
2019 (May–Dec)+5.5%41%1.07
2020+8.3%42%1.07
2021+61.4%49%1.29
2022+22.0%42%1.12
2023+3.2%41%1.04
2024+79.4%49%1.41
2025+61.8%47%1.32
2026 (to Sep)+12.8%44%1.10
Every full year since 2020 finished positive on commission only. With 1 point of slippage, 2020 (−3%) and 2023 (−6%) were small losing years.
Choosing your risk
Risk / tradeA yearWorst dropWith 1 pt slippage
0.5%+8.3%−8%+5.8% · −13%
1%+16.5%−16%+11.1% · −24%
1.5%+24.4%−24%+15.9% · −35%
2%+31.9%−32%+20.1% · −44%
This page shows 2%, the top of the range. It roughly doubles the growth of 1% and doubles the worst drop with it: 8 losses in a row at 2% is about −15%, and the deepest fall was −32% (−44% with slippage). New to the strategy? Start at 0.5–1% and build up.
The rules, in plain words
1
Mark the high and low of the first 15 minutes after the 9:30 am New York open.
2
Skip the day when the range is too narrow to be meaningful.
3
Enter on the breakout, stop on the other side, target 1.75× the risk.
4
One trade a day. No new entries after 2:30 pm; anything open closes at 3:45 pm.
5
Size so that hitting the stop costs your chosen % of the account. Micro contracts make small accounts workable.
Read this before you trade it
These are hypothetical results from a backtest of the rules on historical MNQ prices, not results of real member accounts. They include commission; real fills can be worse. The edge has not always been there: tested on 2010–2018, the same rules lost money every year (profit factor 0.83; 2% risk would have lost about 97% over that stretch). Markets change, and a strategy that worked recently can stop working. Only risk money you can afford to lose. This is education, not financial advice.